Breaking down playoff chances for 9 NHL teams in the wild-card hunt (2025)

The intense race for the final playoff wild-card spots in both NHL conferences is going down to the wire.

Spicy storylines and sizzling high-stakes matchups are happening nearly every night. In the East, you’ve got young and exciting squads emerging from long rebuilds who are trying to break lengthy playoff droughts. Standing in their way are last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners and another cagey, veteran-laden team that just won’t go away. The West, meanwhile, has four contenders fighting for one playoff spot.

To set the stage for this playoff sprint, we’ve analyzed both the bull and bear case for every playoff hopeful’s chances.

Eastern Conference

Montreal Canadiens

Record:33-27-7 (73 points, 15 games remaining)

Reasons for hope: With an impressive 6-3 win over the Senators on Tuesday night, the Canadiens jumped into a playoff spot. Montreal is getting hot at the right time, with an 8-1-2 record since the 4 Nations break. The franchise cornerstones have really stepped up since returning to play. The top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovský have been surging at five-on-five with an 11-4 goal differential in their minutes over the last 11 games. Lane Hutson’s offensive acumen has been shining on the back end — and his willingness to shoot the puck against the Senators was a major moment in the game, which could build confidence moving forward.

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Lane Hutson doing Lane Hutson things#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/pMrRSv6Bdx

— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) March 19, 2025

Even Hutson’s defensive game has also trended in the right direction lately. Sam Montembeault has been the Canadiens’ backbone over this last stretch, with seven quality starts in eight appearances that add up to 12 goals saved above expected.

Montreal has boosted its odds to 40 percent, to lead the field for that second wild-card seed. Even if the Canadiens ultimately fail short, the season isn’t lost either — playing meaningful hockey down the stretch is an essential building block in the process, and this group is showing real promise.

Reasons for concern: As impressive as the top line’s performance has been, there are a few red flags. The team is outscoring expectations by about five goals in its minutes. While the line’s 6.24 expected goals at five-on-five do not account for shooting talent, the gap is significant enough to raise a red flag. Montreal can’t rely on its top line shooting 13.6 percent forever, so the team has to generate more below the surface to help sustain it.

While Brendan Gallagher had a vintage performance against the Senators on Tuesday and secondary scorers such as Christian Dvorak and Josh Anderson stepped up, the bottom nine hasn’t produced consistently enough. When Caufield, Suzuki and Slafkovský have been on the bench since the 4 Nations, the team has been outscored 12-10 and fallen below break-even in expected goals.

As sparkling as the goaltending has been — both goalies combine for a .916 save percentage in all situations — there are some defensive concerns below the surface at even strength and on the penalty kill. So, while this up-and-coming team shouldride the high of this last stretch, this group has to keep improving to maintain its standing.

New York Rangers

Record:33-30-6 (72 points, with 13 games remaining)

Reasons for hope: Igor Shesterkin is an outright game-breaker. In 51 appearances, he has saved about 30 goals above expected, which puts him third in the league behind Connor Hellebuyck and Logan Thompson. And he has only amped it up over this last stretch of play, with nine quality starts in his last 11 outings, where he has saved a collective 11.7 goals above expected. Shesterkin has the chops to carry his team to the playoffs and even steal a series.

Lately, he has had some support, with Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad both trending up in 2025. The addition of J.T. Miller, the return of Adam Fox and the emergence of Will Cuylle as a difference-maker have given this team a spark at times.

Reasons for concern: Tuesday’s game against Calgary stressed everything wrong with this team. The defensive structure is an outright disaster. The Rangers bleed rush chances against and let their opponents drive right to the middle of the ice. New York gave up 15 high-danger chances to the Flames, and somehow, it wasn’t even the team’s worst defensive outing of the season.

What puts an even bigger strain on the team is that the offense isn’t consistent enough to make up for those defensive breakdowns, which leaves the Rangers even more reliant on their goaltenders to be perfect. This year, the Rangers have struggled to convert on the man advantage and rank in the bottom 10 in power-play scoring.

The roster is middling, key contributors such as Alexis Lafrenière, Chris Kreider and Vincent Trocheck have all taken a step back this year, and the coaching hasn’t been able to channel this team’s best energy consistently.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Record:31-28-8 (70 points, with 15 games remaining)

Reasons for hope: The Blue Jackets have been one of the season’s best stories, thanks to so many playersexceeding expectations.That starts with Zach Werenski, who has been an outright difference-maker on the blue line. He has been the team’s engine with his play-driving and defense, which has landed him in the conversation for both the Norris Trophy and the Hart.

Up front, Kirill Marchenko has developed into a true first-line player. So has Dmitri Voronkov, who has generally played on his left on the top line. Sean Monahan has blown away expectations and should return to action soon. Adam Fantilli stepped up in Monahan’s place and has progressed into a top-six role.

Dean Evason deserves a lot of credit for managing this team into the playoff picture. The odds may not be in their favor right now, but there may still be some magic left to push past what has been a difficult stretch.

Reasons for concern: After generating a lot of momentum in the playoff race, with back-to-back wins over the Red Wings and a decisive 7-3 win against the Rangers, the Blue Jackets have fallen flat. The team has only mustered four goals over their last four games while giving up 15. Elvis Merzlikins’ return should help after missing the last two games, but this trend stretches past his absence.

There have been some red flags throughout the season, and now they may finally be catching up to the team. The Blue Jackets have been riding a high shooting percentage most of the year and exceeding expectations on the scoresheet. There have been poor defensive habits throughout the season, too — the team’s scoring pop and goaltending have just made up for them. Plus, there are some special teams concerns on both ends of the ice.

New York Islanders

Record:31-28-8 (70 points, 15 games remaining)

Reason for hope:After a disappointing California trip, the Islanders got back on track with two convincing wins, both by a score of 4-2, against the Panthers and Penguins. As a result, New York’s playoff hopes have ticked back up to 21 percent, which is right in line with the Rangers and Blue Jackets. With four games ahead against three teams in the wild-card race — one each against the Canadiens and Rangers, two versus Columbus — the opportunity is there to make a late run for the playoffs.

Ilya Sorokin has been giving his Islanders a chance most nights, no matter how the team in front of him has played. He has earned seven quality starts in his last nine appearances, with 12 goals saved above expected along the way. Noah Dobson’s return has given this team a spark, too. He underwhelmed through the first half of the year and only averaged a 0.80 Game Score through January. But since returning from injury in late February, his average Game Score over the last 10 games has jumped to 1.93.

Reasons for concern: The Islanders’ roster strength holds them back. Mathew Barzal’s absence leaves a gaping hole at the top of the lineup, considering how well he played this year. The forward group is even more strained after Brock Nelson was traded.

The Islanders were outplayed by lesser opponents in the Ducks and Sharks on the California swing, and their five-on-five play against the Oilers also fell short. Special teams have been a major weakness all season. New York is a bottom-five team in expected and actual goal suppression while short-handed, while the power play sits dead last in the league with just 3.63 goals per 60.

Detroit Red Wings

Record:32-30-6 (70 points, 14 games remaining)

Reasons for hope: The Red Wings’ power play has been absolutely lights-out this season and is on pace for a franchise record. The team has been generating some quality offense at five-on-five since the 4 Nations break, with 2.91 expected goals per 60. Detroit likely won’t shoot under seven percent forever, so the teamshouldstart converting on those chances at a higher rate.

After a sluggish return from the tournament, Lucas Raymond seems to be getting back on track after ending a 10-game goalless drought. Marco Kasper is proving he can perform away from the Red Wings’ leading forwards and help drive play on the second line.

Reason for concern:The Red Wings may be plagued by a lower shooting percentage since the 4 Nations, but their five-on-five offensive creation has been a weakness all year. The bottom six doesn’t thread the needle enough; it can be especially glaring when the top guys or power play aren’t producing. Detroit’s 1.99 five-on-five goals per 60 is third-last in the league, and their expected goal generation ranks 23rd. As much as the power play can give this team a lift, the Red Wings are over-reliant on it to make up for what they lack at even strength and in their own zone.

Team defense and penalty-killing woes have been a theme all year, and the goaltenders can’t always contain some of the breakdowns in front of them. Adding Petr Mrázek helps take some of the growing burden off Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon, but his track record this year, despite his results so far in Detroit, is still a cause for concern. So is the road ahead — the Red Wings have the most difficult remaining schedule in the league, which has tanked their playoff chancesdown to just five percent.

Western Conference

Vancouver Canucks

Record: 32-25-11 (75 points, 14 games remaining)

Reasons for hope:The Canucks currently hold the final wild-card spot and are coming off their most impressive win of the season, a 6-2 rout of the formidable Winnipeg Jets. Quinn Hughes has returned to the lineup after missing 10 of 13 games since Feb 1. Hughes is playing at less than 100 percent health but his return has ignited the club’s dormant offense. Since Hughes’ return, the Canucks have won three of their last four games while averaging 4.25 goals scored per game.

Struggling star center Elias Pettersson also appears to be turning a corner with four goals and eight points in his last seven games. If Hughes and Pettersson can maintain their current form, the Canucks will produce just enough offense that their lockdown defensive play, elite penalty kill (which ranks No. 1 in the NHL since Feb. 1) and Kevin Lankinen’s solid goaltending should allow them to win games consistently down the stretch.

Reasons for concern: Vancouver’s recent offensive outburst is a positive sign, but this is still an attack that can go cold at any time. Since Jan. 1, the Canucks have been a bottom-five team in goals scored per game. Their five-on-five offensive shot generation rate ranks 31st in the NHL during that span. Filip Chytil is out with a concussion and Conor Garland missed the last game, which hurts an already-thin top six.

Pettersson and Boeser clicked last game, which could be a launching pad for them, but that’s just one game and we’ve seen them previously struggle to build chemistry. Boeser has been fighting it since losing former linemate J.T. Miller — he was mired in a 12-game goal drought before finally scoring twice against Winnipeg. This team is still reliant on Hughes to carry them and while he undoubtedly has the talent for that, we’ll see if his body can hold up with the injuries he’s playing through and the monster workload he’s being tasked with.

Vancouver’s remaining schedule isn’t easy either. The Canucks have two games left against Vegas and one more against each of Winnipeg, Dallas and Colorado.

St. Louis Blues

Record: 34-28-7 (75 points, 13 games remaining)

Reasons for hope:The Blues are 11-3-3 since Feb 1, which is the third-best record in the NHL. Jim Montgomery’s midseason arrival has drastically improved the club’s underlying profile. St. Louis has controlled nearly 53 percent of five-on-five expected goals, which ranks top-10 in the NHL, since Montgomery’s hiring in late November, compared to an ugly 45 percent share of expected goals under Drew Bannister, which was one of the worst marks in the league.

St. Louis’ top-six forward group is firing on all cylinders, with Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway and Brayden Schenn all hovering around the point-per-game mark since Feb 1. The Blues are defending significantly better, with newcomers Philip Broberg and Cam Fowler making a strong top-four impact, plus Justin Faulk playing rejuvenated hockey.

St. Louis’ remaining schedule is also relatively favorable in terms of opponent quality. Only three of the Blues’ remaining 13 games are against an opponent that’s top 10 in the league standings by points percentage. Over the next five games, they play Nashville twice and Chicago once.

Reasons for concern: Calgary, Vancouver and Utah all have an extra 1-2 games in hand relative to the Blues. Colton Parayko, their best defenseman, is recovering well but could miss the rest of the regular season with a knee injury. St. Louis has held up impressively in six games without Parayko so far, but its schedule has been quite soft in that timeframe, and it’s not easy for any team to sustain success over a larger sample when you’re missing your No. 1 defenseman.

The Blues’ playoff hopes will also suffer a huge dent if they lose on Thursday to the Canucks; they can’t afford to drop this one.

Calgary Flames

Record: 31-25-11 (73 points, 15 games remaining)

Reasons for hope:This team doesn’t quit and is greater than the sum of its parts. The Flames were on the verge of falling apart after losing three straight games, but they walked into Madison Square Garden on Tuesday on the second leg of a back-to-back and impressively shellacked the Rangers 35-13 on the shot clock en route to a massive victory. That shows huge character and resilience.

Dustin Wolf has been a rock star in net. Calgary doesn’t have any remaining back-to-backs, so the coaching staff can ride Wolf as heavily as they want down the stretch.

The Flames are a structured, hard-working group that doesn’t surrender many egregious Grade-A chances. Calgary’s special teams have been a strength lately — its penalty kill ranks fifth-best in the NHL since the 4 Nations break, and the power play has been about league-average.

Reasons for concern: Where are the goals going to come from? The Flames have been limited to three or fewer goals in 16 of their last 17 games. They’re averaging 2.54 goals scored per game, which ranks 32nd in the NHL this season. Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar have been productive lately, but besides that, Calgary is starved for reliable scoring threats.

The Flames are 6-7-4 since Feb 1, which is by far the worst record out of the four main wild-card hopefuls in the West. It isn’t going to be easy to turn the ship around given the deficit of high-end talent on this roster. Calgary is still a legitimate threat in this race but you can’t help but wonder if the clock is about to strike midnight for a Cinderella team that has been scuffling over the last 20 games and has arguably the weakest roster of the Western wild-card contenders.

Utah Hockey Club

Record: 30-27-11 (71 points, 14 games remaining)

Reasons for hope:Utah is a better team than its mediocre record indicates. Clayton Keller’s team is fast, dynamic and consistently generates more shots and scoring chances than they surrender. Utah ranks sixth and fifth in the NHL, respectively, at controlling five-on-five shot attempts and expected goals. They’ve been snakebitten by poor finishing, but if that reverses, they arguably have the highest offensive ceiling of the four remaining hopefuls based on the ease with which they pile up quality shots and chances and their exciting young core led by Keller, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther.

The back end is finally healthy after Sean Durzi and John Marino’s extended absences. From top to bottom, this is a skilled, deep roster that could conceivably get on a roll.

Reasons for concern: Utah has the steepest deficit to climb in the West. The club sits four points back of the final wild-card spot and would need to leapfrog Calgary, St. Louis and Vancouver with only 14 games remaining. While the team’s skill is undeniable, this group is young and inexperienced, which leaves it prone to self-inflicted wounds and inconsistency.

Karel Vejmelka’s heavy workload is also a potential concern. The 28-year-old netminder has been very solid this season, but with Connor Ingram entering the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance program, he’s started 11 of the club’s last 12 games, which included playing both ends of a back-to-back set.

Vejmelka is showing signs of potential fatigue, as he’s slipped to an .873 save percentage in his last six games. Utah will be in trouble if he can’t perform at an above-average level down the stretch. They have two remaining back-to-back sets, which isn’t ideal. Jaxson Stauber, the current backup, only has 11 games of NHL experience.

(Top photo: Alex Goodlett / Getty Images)